So this is the year they were talking about after all, eh? At the turn of 2000, tech futurists went to work thanks to all those advancements that were happening. The real visionaries spoke about the year 2020, and the short-sighted (pun unintended) ones kept themselves occupied with 2010. It was all over the place, remember? Somehow, 2010 (or the turn of the decade as we call it) was expected to be this tipping point in everything that cocooned the human imagination. They said it all – ranging from high rates of diabetes to back to back economic recessions to selling real estate on the moon. Somehow, in 2002 (or 03), 2010 seemed liked this year that was way into the future. For some of us it even seemed that it would take a really really long while to get there.
But then, here we are. It’s 2010 and it doesn’t feel very much different than it did when they made those predictions, really. The undeniable fact however is that the world today looks very very different from the one 7 or 8 years ago; maybe even 3 or 4 years ago. Probably because we’ve come to accept change living day to day that we don’t realize it! The futurists were right. Well, at least some of them were. So i find it hard to digest when people say "This is what i am, i can't change." Sorry bud, don't tell fibs.
So the deal-of-this-coming-decade as I understand is the (seemingly obvious) fact that we’re going to remain logged on to the internet twenty four bar seven. Logging on-and-off is out; staying logged on is in. This means we’ll all have a smart phone in our hands whether we like it or not. Balckberries ain't just for the C-suite guys. If some one had told you in 1999 that you’d OWN a mobile phone ten years from now, you’d have probably thought that the guy had lost his marbles. But trust me to trust the tech pundits on the blackberry thing.
Expect two other things this decade:
Number one:- Expect drug companies to shift towards producing preventive medical treatment moving forward over the traditional curative medications. People and insurance companies it seems are more into fixing the tap before it leaks. If you're planning on studying medicine, at least be sure to learn nutritional medicine really well.
Number two: - If people are going to stay logged on to the internet 24X7, much of the money in the world will move into cyberspace (accelerating the already building trend). How does that help you and me? This means that if we can figure out a way to get a slice of this internet money pie (monetizing blogs, tweets so on), we can effectively work at our careers because we like it and not because we have to. Which means, expect to see people in their twenties retiring before their parents do. And expect billionaires still in high school. Forbes will just have to put out a trillionarries list eventually.
Until then, sit back and have a meaningful year ahead. Take care of the years, and the decade will take care of itself.
Showing posts with label Future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Future. Show all posts
Monday, January 4, 2010
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Sluts for superlatives
Is the human race done with inventing all that needs to be invented? Marconi, Bell, Wilbur and Orville.. you know where this is headed, right? When was the last time that someone invented something that changed the very DNA of a society? The computer was one. You could say software and internet, but I’m not so sure. Radio, TV, airplanes; when was it last that some one invented something so basic that you could say it was created out of thin air. My friend reckons that everything this society needs has already been invented. We are just working on improvising existing platforms (the mobile phone was a step up from the landline).
Have we well and truly laid the foundations for all the requirements of a social animal? If the answer is a ‘YES’, then the 21st century will turn out to be quite a boring one. We’ll just move from alpha to beta to gama to zeta before the sun eats up the earth (or the Mayan calendar comes true; my money is not here). If the answer to the question is a ‘NO’, then whatever exits around us is one big joke compared to what’s in store. Imagine Rama’s wooden footwear placed alongside Nike’s latest shock absorbing nitro boosting cosmonaut sneakers.
It’s a fair thing to consider. Technology breeds itself and sooner or later we'll be beaming people around the world instead of flying them around in stupid airplanes. But again, that’s a case of extending the frontiers of science. My question is whether there’ll be another Galileo or Copernicus (in this century) who will pull another rabbit out of the hat and not just feed carrots to the ones that are already scurrying around.
Have we well and truly laid the foundations for all the requirements of a social animal? If the answer is a ‘YES’, then the 21st century will turn out to be quite a boring one. We’ll just move from alpha to beta to gama to zeta before the sun eats up the earth (or the Mayan calendar comes true; my money is not here). If the answer to the question is a ‘NO’, then whatever exits around us is one big joke compared to what’s in store. Imagine Rama’s wooden footwear placed alongside Nike’s latest shock absorbing nitro boosting cosmonaut sneakers.
It’s a fair thing to consider. Technology breeds itself and sooner or later we'll be beaming people around the world instead of flying them around in stupid airplanes. But again, that’s a case of extending the frontiers of science. My question is whether there’ll be another Galileo or Copernicus (in this century) who will pull another rabbit out of the hat and not just feed carrots to the ones that are already scurrying around.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
A Gate-a-way.
It's been almost a week now since the celebrated Chairman of Microsoft, Bill Gates stepped down from office. As an aspiring entrepreneur myself, I have always kept my ears open to the words that spring out of his mouth every now and then. Like many great men of the previous centuries whose words continue to be quoted long after they're gone, Gates will be be no exception.
There's little that remains unsaid of his scholastic, professional and financial genius; and Blogger wouldn't bail me out if I were jailed for repeating it. For a couple of days now, I have been keeping myself busy with Robert Heilbroner's The Worldly Philosophers. An interesting incidence that points out repeatedly in this book, and even as History has put into spotlight: there are always the theorists, and there are the practical men. Theorists will 'study' patterns and trends and show light into the way of the future. That is how consultants have always earned their bread and butter in any field. No one better than Peter Drucker in Management Circles and futurist Alvin Tofler pop up into my head here. I haven't read of much of Drucker myself; but the number of volumes that carry his name on the cover page across the book shelves of the world speak for themselves of the guru. I personally adore, respect, follow and worship Alvin Tofler. Call this clan as Toflerians, but if the previous sentence made you want to jump out of the window for lack of comprehension, I would at least urge you to read The Third Wave (one of the most influential books of the last century) before doing so. But Bill Gates would figure ahead of the two gentlemen. Having opened the doors of the information age, he has always operated ahead of the rest of the world by at least 5 to 10 years. What does that mean?
The 5 to 10 years window is not necessarily in the sense of a visionary. Most men/women that have achieved anything significant in life have all been visionaries. Bill Gates, as of today, can say what exactly technology will look like in some years from now. Picture this as the look out in a ship standing atop the sails and warning people on the deck know of what lies ahead. And the man is pin point accurate to what he says. Having started out as a programmer, he went on to play a sales man pitching the world to buy into his software, then built a strong business system and provided super leadership. Besides this, he's donned on other caps as a successful investor. an economist (he's a regular face at the World Economic Forum in Davos annually), a futurist, a writer and more recently as a philanthropist. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is far bigger than the Rockefellers' or the Fords'. In charity size does not matter, but then, it matters.
He deserves all the accolades that have been bestowed on him. Thanks Bill for the new age! I'm proud to have lived on this earth at a time that he did.
There's little that remains unsaid of his scholastic, professional and financial genius; and Blogger wouldn't bail me out if I were jailed for repeating it. For a couple of days now, I have been keeping myself busy with Robert Heilbroner's The Worldly Philosophers. An interesting incidence that points out repeatedly in this book, and even as History has put into spotlight: there are always the theorists, and there are the practical men. Theorists will 'study' patterns and trends and show light into the way of the future. That is how consultants have always earned their bread and butter in any field. No one better than Peter Drucker in Management Circles and futurist Alvin Tofler pop up into my head here. I haven't read of much of Drucker myself; but the number of volumes that carry his name on the cover page across the book shelves of the world speak for themselves of the guru. I personally adore, respect, follow and worship Alvin Tofler. Call this clan as Toflerians, but if the previous sentence made you want to jump out of the window for lack of comprehension, I would at least urge you to read The Third Wave (one of the most influential books of the last century) before doing so. But Bill Gates would figure ahead of the two gentlemen. Having opened the doors of the information age, he has always operated ahead of the rest of the world by at least 5 to 10 years. What does that mean?
The 5 to 10 years window is not necessarily in the sense of a visionary. Most men/women that have achieved anything significant in life have all been visionaries. Bill Gates, as of today, can say what exactly technology will look like in some years from now. Picture this as the look out in a ship standing atop the sails and warning people on the deck know of what lies ahead. And the man is pin point accurate to what he says. Having started out as a programmer, he went on to play a sales man pitching the world to buy into his software, then built a strong business system and provided super leadership. Besides this, he's donned on other caps as a successful investor. an economist (he's a regular face at the World Economic Forum in Davos annually), a futurist, a writer and more recently as a philanthropist. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is far bigger than the Rockefellers' or the Fords'. In charity size does not matter, but then, it matters.
He deserves all the accolades that have been bestowed on him. Thanks Bill for the new age! I'm proud to have lived on this earth at a time that he did.
Monday, September 3, 2007
CONVERGENCE
I noticed it first when Pratik bought a Pim-Pom lollipop from Uncle ji's dukan. This was a simple and non-threatening dollop of flavoured sugar enclosing a chewing gum, both supported on a thin stick (if you haven't tried the Pim-pom, go do that). This lollipop is testimonial to a whole new wave of societal change that we are at the outset of experiencing. The change that I'm referring to is convergence.
In a layman's language, convergence is the combination of multiple unrelated fields to solve a common purpose. The case of Pimpom can be analysed thus: there are people who like lollipops; and there are people who like chewing gums. If the two products can be combined to give one single product, the target group of customers is simply a little less than the union of the 2 sets of initial customers. Hence, for the manufacturers of Pimpom, the customer base has risen all of a sudden just by placing the gum at the centre of the lollipop.
On a slightly advanced level, convergence shows up with the rise of the Prosumer. Since Adam Smith, economics has always been studied treating the producer and the consumer as separate entities driving the market system. With the onset of the information age (thereby driving the digital revolution and forcing in the cyber world), convergence of the producer and the consumer is starting to show up across various layers of society. In the near future, it will become essential for us to 'produce' a part of what we are to 'consume'. Take the whole concept of a self-service restaurant. A conventional restaurant might make the best noodles in town. But the noodles is not really is the product the restauranter is selling. The restaurant is not in the noodles business; it is in the service business. The guy who makes the noodles and the guy who serves them at the table and gives you the check at the end of the meal are both 'producers' of the service which is being 'consumed' by you and me, the customers.
In a self service restaurant, the definition of service becomes slightly skewed. True, the guy inside still makes the noodles. But the customer is required to walk up to the counter and pick up his order. Effectively, a part of the service production is shifted back to the consumer. As a result the cost that he incur es on the noodles should be lesser than if he were served. Similarly, across every field of the economy today, we see the rise of the prosumer happening. It is only a matter of time before we stop talking about 'production' and 'consumption' as separate terms and start talking of a new converged activity called 'prosumption'. Will supply-demand economics apply to prosumtion? Yes. And no. However, we will need the laws of economics altered to fit this evolving mould.
In academia, our universities run degrees in sciences (BSc), arts (BA), engineering (B.Tech/BE), commerce (B.Com), architecture (B.Arch) and many others. These are field specific. It is expected that an individual completing a B.Com degree will go on to become a banker or a CA and serve his base of clients in that domain. Reading the problem backwards, it is expected that a client(consumer) will go to the banker(producer) for fulfilling his financial services. Or in other words, the consumer is being domain specific and expects the banker to do nothing more than fill out his loan application or manage his assets. But the prosumer of tomorrow is not that domain specific. He would walk up to one single person and expect the latter to fill out his loan application, take his pulse rate and help him find a copy of Don Quixote off the book shelf. This would immediately imply that the latter would have to be educated in multiple disciplines. And this is something that the education system will have to evolve out of need. In the future, we might see a student specialising in accountancy, bio-sciences, literature and cooking - all covered under one degree. We just don't know what we would call such a person. Maybe the degree would be a B.ConS, as in Bachelors in Converging Studies!
In a layman's language, convergence is the combination of multiple unrelated fields to solve a common purpose. The case of Pimpom can be analysed thus: there are people who like lollipops; and there are people who like chewing gums. If the two products can be combined to give one single product, the target group of customers is simply a little less than the union of the 2 sets of initial customers. Hence, for the manufacturers of Pimpom, the customer base has risen all of a sudden just by placing the gum at the centre of the lollipop.
On a slightly advanced level, convergence shows up with the rise of the Prosumer. Since Adam Smith, economics has always been studied treating the producer and the consumer as separate entities driving the market system. With the onset of the information age (thereby driving the digital revolution and forcing in the cyber world), convergence of the producer and the consumer is starting to show up across various layers of society. In the near future, it will become essential for us to 'produce' a part of what we are to 'consume'. Take the whole concept of a self-service restaurant. A conventional restaurant might make the best noodles in town. But the noodles is not really is the product the restauranter is selling. The restaurant is not in the noodles business; it is in the service business. The guy who makes the noodles and the guy who serves them at the table and gives you the check at the end of the meal are both 'producers' of the service which is being 'consumed' by you and me, the customers.
In a self service restaurant, the definition of service becomes slightly skewed. True, the guy inside still makes the noodles. But the customer is required to walk up to the counter and pick up his order. Effectively, a part of the service production is shifted back to the consumer. As a result the cost that he incur es on the noodles should be lesser than if he were served. Similarly, across every field of the economy today, we see the rise of the prosumer happening. It is only a matter of time before we stop talking about 'production' and 'consumption' as separate terms and start talking of a new converged activity called 'prosumption'. Will supply-demand economics apply to prosumtion? Yes. And no. However, we will need the laws of economics altered to fit this evolving mould.
In academia, our universities run degrees in sciences (BSc), arts (BA), engineering (B.Tech/BE), commerce (B.Com), architecture (B.Arch) and many others. These are field specific. It is expected that an individual completing a B.Com degree will go on to become a banker or a CA and serve his base of clients in that domain. Reading the problem backwards, it is expected that a client(consumer) will go to the banker(producer) for fulfilling his financial services. Or in other words, the consumer is being domain specific and expects the banker to do nothing more than fill out his loan application or manage his assets. But the prosumer of tomorrow is not that domain specific. He would walk up to one single person and expect the latter to fill out his loan application, take his pulse rate and help him find a copy of Don Quixote off the book shelf. This would immediately imply that the latter would have to be educated in multiple disciplines. And this is something that the education system will have to evolve out of need. In the future, we might see a student specialising in accountancy, bio-sciences, literature and cooking - all covered under one degree. We just don't know what we would call such a person. Maybe the degree would be a B.ConS, as in Bachelors in Converging Studies!
Monday, July 2, 2007
Globalisation and its effects on youth.
The big G-word is splashed all over the place today. From front pages of newspapers to the back covers of magazines and everwhere else in between, globalisation occurs as more than a mere definition. It is a way of life. A change so profound that it has come ripping through socieites and uprooted the very basics of hierarchy and timeline and put the whole of the 6.5 billion that walk this planet on a level platform. But all of this was not a big overnight BOOM. It happenend while you were up each morning brushing and sipping on coffee. It was happening while you were hanging out with your girl(boy)friend. It will continue to happen as you trip on chilled beer. If something so earth-shaking is moving about us so stealthily, it is worth a minute of our attention.
From a Pan India point of view we can see globalisation operating on three levels:
Win-win state
Win-lose state
lose-lose state
Or simply put, the three levels or states show the consequces that globalisation has had on India with the rest of the world and vice versa. As of now. with 52% plus Indians in their sunny days, it is but obvious that the youth are very detrimental to the course of the world in the years to come.
1) THE WIN-WIN STATE
In English this is what it means - how has globalisation benefitted both the Indian youth and the world's at large. By wiring the whole world on to the www, we have been able to allow movement of information as freely as words flow out of Prathibha Patil's mouth. So information rests at everyone's fingertips. This has been one of the inherent factors that explains the 5 or 6 figure incomes of the 25 somethings, This has meant that there are more people today than 5 or 10 years ago who can afford a better lifestyle than their parents. As a by product of this we are seeing a boom happening across practically every section in the market, from ayurveda to aviation.
A Kannadiga boy working in Hewellet-Packard marries a Mexican girl. And the marriage ceremony is held in the boy's home town in Karnataka; and the girl changes her name form Jessica to Jaya. This would have been a rosy-walk-in-the-park story straight out of Womens' Era in 1995. But in June 2007, it is a newspaper report splashed on the front page of the Deccan Herald. The moral of this story is that you could make a great friend or even find a partner half way across the world without having to move out of your chair. That's a win-win proposition!
2) THE WIN-LOSE STATE
What has the Indian youth gained at the expense of the world, as a result of globalisation? And what has the World gained at the expense of India?
Since globalisation is itself in its youth, only the first of the two questions can be answered as of this point in time. So what did they lose that we gained? The answer to that question lies in the word 'outsourcing', A word that we have come to like and they have begun to detest.
3) THE LOSE-LOSE STATE
What is the down side of a globalising India? Going the G-way has put considerable sums of money and opportunities in the hands of millions of youngsters. What it has failed to provide however is the education on how to manage all that is earned. And consequently, we hear of stress, burnouts, failed marriages and rich credit card companies.
As the youth continue to march along hand in hand with globalisation today, we can't say with any more certainity about the direction of it's progress as we can about Paris Hilton's next big act for being in the news. But maybe someday, we will hear of Raju's and Rani's Pasta corner, Joe's and Jenny's Dosa camp and Chin Yew's Fish and Curry all lined up next to one another on a street in Cairo!
Arjun.B.S
W: bondasoup.wordpess.com
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